全球背景下台商投资大陆对两岸经济发展的影响研究

基于宏观经济增长理论,选取投资、消费、进出口贸易等测度指标作为外生变量,使用1991-2014年16个样本国家/地区台商投资流入与流出的面板数据,分别构建大陆不同源地FDI（外商直接投资）与台湾OFDI（对外直接投资）不同目的地的向量自回归模型（VAR）框架,对台商投资大陆（TDI）对两岸经济发展的贡献进行全方面对比与国际比较。研究表明：① TDI对大陆经济增长存在短期负向,长期正向作用,对台湾经济增长则保持长期正向促进作用且影响幅度较大。② TDI在两岸经济发展中的作用存在明显的不对称性：TDI在大陆经济发展中的贡献位居第5,即小于日本、美国、韩国和中国香港的FDI对中国大陆经济增长作用;台湾对大陆投资对台湾本地的经济增长贡献程度最大,即大于美国和东盟位居第1。

Effects on TDI of Chinese mainland in the cross-strait economic development under the global background

In the global context, the analysis involving effects and enlightenments on TDI of Chinese mainland in the cross-strait economic development facilitates the better understandings of the relationships between Taiwan and Chinese mainland, as well as the identification of reasonable future of TDI and cross-strait economic and trade relations. Based on panel data of Taiwan investment inflows and outflows from 1991 to 2014, this paper has selected indicators such as investment, consumption, import and export trade as exogenous variances according to macro-economic growth theory, respectively building vector autoregressive model (VAR) to measure two problems: one was contrasting economic contribution from TDI and other FDI to Chinese mainland, the other was the comparison of economic effect on Chinese mainland's TDI and other OFDI. The empirical results showed that: (1) A short-term negative economic effect on Chinese mainland and positive ones in the long run existed considering the impulse response from TDI, which has played a long-term positive role in Taiwanese economic growth; (2) There was an obvious asymmetry on TDI in the cross-strait economic impacts: compared to other FDI from typical economies, TDI's economic contribution in the mainland of China ranked fifth, (more influence comes from Japan, the United States, South Korea and Hong Kong), yet jumping as first concerning Taiwanese economic growth in contrast to other OFDI' representative economies (exceeding the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations). On the basis of the above conclusion, the prospects and suggestions of TDI in the mainland of China and the future of cross-strait economic and trade relations were put forward: on the one hand, China should continue to adopt Taiwanese preferential policies underhanded and guided by the geographic thinking, which refers to core thoughts of the geography school and regional school; On the other hand, Taiwan should adjust the distribution of investment industry and its value chain strategy, not only to expand the cooperation on Taiwan high-tech industry, advanced manufacturing industry and other emerging industries, as well as financial, logistics and other modern service industries between Chinese mainland and Taiwan, on the basis of the current manufacturing investments from Taiwanese, but also to promote the balanced development and coordinated spatial layout of Taiwanese industry value chain in Chinese mainland.