中国客运交通的碳排放地理特征与展望

围绕全国、省市和“一带一路”三个空间层面,对1990-2012年中国客运交通的碳排放进行了估算和分析。研究表明：① 在全国层面上,公路是碳排放总量最大的运输方式,其次是航空,而铁路和水运的碳排放较低且保持稳定;② 在省市层面上,交通碳排放呈现出从东部向中、西部递减的趋势,并且空间分布越来越集中在东部省份;③ “一带一路”的主要城市中,“丝绸之路经济带”（简称“一带”）的沿线城市表现出较低的交通碳排放,而“21世纪海上丝绸之路”（简称“一路”）沿线的港口城市的交通碳排放较高,而且都以公路碳排放为主。未来在满足和控制交通需求的同时,有必要发展以铁路和公共交通为主的低碳交通模式,替代目前以公路为主的交通模式。

Carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transport in China: Geographical characteristics and future challenges

This paper estimates and analyzes the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from urban passenger transport in China from 1990 to 2012 at three spatial scales: the national level, the provincial level and "the Belt and Road" level. At the national level, road transport was found to be the leading source of passenger transport CO₂ emissions, followed by air transport, whereas the CO₂ emissions from rail and water transport remained at relatively low and stable levels. At the provincial level, CO₂ emissions from passenger transport were the highest in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and the lowest in the western region. The increasing coefficients of variation (CV) over the past two decades indicate that transport CO₂ emissions tended to be more concentrated in the eastern provinces, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang. At the "the Belt and Road" level, most major cities along "the Silk Road Economic Belt" (i.e. "the Belt") showed relatively low transport CO₂ emissions, whereas the cities along "the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" (i.e. "the Road") had relatively high transport CO₂ emissions. Nonetheless, road transport already dominated the transport CO₂ emissions in all these cities. Following the national development strategy, more travel demand will be generated by the economic development and infrastructure construction in these cities. This can pose a great challenge to the target of low-carbon emissions in China. Apart from managing travel demand, it is necessary to encourage a modal shift from road transport towards more sustainable transport modes, i.e., rail and public transport.