黄河流域农村经济差异及空间演化

研究黄河流域农村经济发展状况对揭示其经济差异的驱动机制和实现黄河流域农村地区的跨越式发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文运用层次分析法建立农村经济发展水平综合评价指标体系,并利用GeoDA和GIS软件,结合ESDA-GIS空间分析法,深入分析了1990-2013年黄河流域332个县级行政单元农村经济的差异及其空间演化。结果表明：①近20多年来,黄河流域农村经济发展水平东高西低,整体水平不断上升。高及较高水平区主要分布在黄河下游且呈团状集聚,中等水平区主要位于黄河流域传统的农牧区,低及较低水平区主要分布在黄河源头及周边地区。空间格局以高水平区为中心,逐渐向周边低水平区扩散,分层现象较明显;②1990年以来,黄河流域农村经济的空间集聚效应呈逐渐增强态势,以显著高—高和显著低—低类型区为主且稳定性较强,而显著高—低和显著低—高类型区则较少;③区位、产业结构和政策是导致黄河流域农村经济差异的主要因素。

Rural economic differentiation and spatial change in the Yellow River Basin

The study of rural economic development in the Yellow River Basin has an important theoretical and practical significance to revealing the driving mechanism of rural economic differentiation and realizing rapid development of rural areas in the Yellow River Basin. This article developed a comprehensive evaluation index of economic development level by using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It applied GIS, GeoDA software and combined ESDA-GIS spatial analysis framework to analyze the spatial and temporal differences of rural economy of 332 counties in the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2013. The findings show that: (1) The level of rural economic development in the eastern region of the Yellow River Basin was higher than the west. The overall level has gradually increased in the past 20 years. The highest and higher level zones were mainly distributed in the lower Yellow River reach and clustered; the medium level areas were mainly located in the traditional agricultural and pastoral areas of the Yellow River Basin, and the lowest and lower zones were located in the source region and their surrounding areas of the Yellow River. The spatial pattern showed that the high development level area was located in the center and there was a decreasing trend from the center to the surrounding areas. There was also clear spatial stratification among the different development levels; (2) The degree of spatial agglomeration was increasing since 1990. Moreover, areas of significantly high-high and significantly low-low development were dominant, showed a stable distribution, and concentrated in the downstream and upstream areas of the Yellow River respectively. On the other hand, areas of high-low and low-high development did not show a stable distribution and were fewer in number. (3) Factors including location, industrial structure, and development policy were the main causes of the differentiation of rural economy in the Yellow River Basin.