地震预警信息发布时延分析

对地震预警信息发布时延作调研后认为，预警接收终端的发布时延小于1 s；广播、电视发布时延为几s；互联网发布（新媒体、手机APP、第三方平台推送）时效性受并发量影响，在千万级用户时发布时延是30～40 s。因此，应采用分区域分级发布策略，以提高发布时效。以汶川地震为例，针对社会公众发布预警信息的时效分析结果表明，在首台触发3～4 s内开始发布预警信息，震中20～50 km范围内95%以上的网民有1～7 s的预警时间，而破裂最大区域（北川）95%以上的网民将获得30 s以上的预警时间。

Time-Delay Analysis of the Releasing Earthquake Early Warning Information

In this paper, according to the different ways of release, we perform a detailed analysis of earthquake early warning information release time-delay. The results show that the release time-delay by warning receiving terminal is less than 1 second. It is the same with radio or television release, but efficiency is greatly influenced by time period. Using the internet (new media, mobile phone APP, third-party platform to push) release time-delay is greatly influenced by user concurrency: ten million users of release time delay is 30 to 40 seconds, so we argue that we should use fractal area classification release strategy to effectively improve release time. Analysis of the Wenchuan earthquake for example, shows that within 20 to 50 km, more than 95% of Internet users have 1-7 seconds of warning time; more than 95% of the Internet users who are in the biggest rupture area (Beichuan) will gain more than 30 seconds of warning time.