气候变化对成都桃花观赏旅游的影响与人类适应行为

基于中国物候观测网14年桃花盛花期数据,1987-2014年四川历年报纸100余条桃花节日期记录,以及1987-2013年研究区月均温数据,采用小波分析,相关分析等方法评估了气候变化对桃花观赏旅游的影响.结果表明:研究区气候变化显著,物候期对气候变化高度敏感,桃花盛花期前三个月和前一个月温度升高1℃,盛花期分别提前6.47天和4.16天.桃花节开幕日期与温度变化趋势及周期对比,两者相关分析发现,过去近30年,成都桃花节组织者通常会根据温度变化调节赏花节开幕日期,但2000-2008年更多的是将节日安排在周末.研究证明气候变化已通过改变植物花期,对赏花旅游产生了影响.管理部门调节节庆日期的方式是赏花旅游适应气候变化影响的有效策略.研究可为评估气候变化对其他时令旅游活动的影响提供新的视角和方法,也可为中国赏花旅游提出适应气候变化的有效策略提供科学依据.

Climate change and peach blossom viewing: Impact and adaptation

According to the peach full flowering data from Chinese Phenological Observation Network for 14 years , more than 100 date records of Peach Blossom Festival in Sichuan newspapers over the period 1987-2014, and the monthly average air temperature data in the study area during 1987 to 2013, we assessed the impact of climate change on Peach Blossom Viewing Tourism by using wavelet analysis and correlation analysis. The results revealed that the climate of the study area changed significantly and the phenophase was highly sensitive to climate change. Higher air temperature resulted in earlier full flowering of peaches, and lower air temperature leads to postponed flowering. The air temperature of three months before full flowering had a significant effect on the flowering. When the air temperature of three months before full flowering and the air temperature of one month before full flowering increased by 1℃, the full flowering date would advance by 6.47 days and 4.16 days respectively. By comparison of interannual change trends and change cycles of Peach Blossom Festival opening date and the air temperature, we found that when the air temperature rises, the organizers of Chengdu Peach Blossom Festival usually advanced the opening date and when the air temperature reduces, the organizers of Chengdu Peach Blossom Festival usually delayed the opening date in the past 30 years. Peach Blossom Festival opening date and the air temperature one month before were significantly correlated. But the organizers had not adjusted the flower festival date according to the changing air temperature, instead the festival was mostly scheduled on the weekend for 2000 to 2008. The study showed that climate change has impacted flowers viewing tourism by changing the flowering date of plants and extreme weather disasters. The approaches to adjust festival date and take effective measures against freezing disasters for the management are effective strategies to adapt to the impacts on climate change for flowers viewing tourism. This study can provide new perspectives and methods for assessing the influences of climate change on some other seasonal tourism activities, as well as scientific basis for China's flowers viewing tourism to come up with effective strategies to adapt to climate change.