国家经济增速与国家竞争力/影响力的时空关系

经济发展速度一直是各国家经济发展水平的重要测度指标,但国家经济增速与国家竞争/影响力之间的关系及可能的阈值需要进行深入地研究,尤其是在中国经济增速下滑的背景下,迫切需要阐释经济增速下降是否影响国家竞争力/影响力。在评述既有研究进展的基础上,采用时空分析路径,探讨国家经济发展速度与国家竞争力/影响力的时空关系。首先,从历史的角度分析了15世纪以来世界权力中心的演变路径,考察了英国、美国等世界权力中心的国家经济增速变化,总结其发展规律,考察国家影响力与国家经济增速之间的对应关系。然后着眼于空间视角,考察目前国家经济增速与国家竞争力的空间分异,尤其是考察两者之间关系的分异关系,总结主要特征与规律。研究发现国家经济增速与国家影响力之间并非存在严格的线性关系,但国家影响力的培育与强化仍需要一定的经济增速进行支撑,而国家经济增速与国家竞争力之间呈现逆向的对应关系,经济高速增长的国家往往竞争力较低,竞争力较高的国家往往有较低的经济增速甚至负增长。

Relationship Between National Economic Growth Ratio and National Competitiveness/National Influence Capacity

For a long time, the economic growth ratio and the national competitiveness/influence have been the focuses for the researchers especially the official decision maker for various countries. However, the relationship between the national economic growth ratio and national competitiveness/national influence need to be suited further. Especially under the background that China’s economic growth ratio reduced gradually, it’s urgent to probe the doubt whether the decrement of economic growth ratio impair the national influence and competitiveness in China. Based on the review on the current research, we discussed the relationship between the national economic growth ratio and national competitiveness/influence from spatial and temporal dimensions. Firstly, we described the evolving path of global power center since 15th century from a historical perspective, and analyzed the changes of economic growth ratio of global power centers such as the UK and the USA to conclude the developing regularities and investigate the relationship between national economic growth ratio and national influence. Furthermore, we discussed the spatial differentiation of current national economic growth ratio and national competitiveness, especially probe the spatial differentiation of their relationship and conclude the major features and regularities. The results show there is no rigorous linear but a curvilinear adaptable relationship between national economic growth and national influence, but the foster and intensification of national influence still need the support by a higher economic growth ratio and the global power center often has lower economic growth ratio of 5%. And a converse relationship is shaped between the national economic growth ratio and national competitiveness, and generally the country with a higher economic growth ratio has a lower national competitiveness but the country with a higher competitiveness has a lower economic growth ratio even show the negative growing trend of economy. Under the background that the economic growth ratio in China has been decreasing in recent years, this research is help to clarify the worry of scholars and policy-makers and the ratio from 5% to 7% of economic growth in China doesn’t reduce the national competitiveness/influence in the world. And the result also shows that the target of 7.5% of economic growth ratio is rational for China to upgrade into a global power center.