高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略——以甘南高原为例

气候变化对生态脆弱区以自然资源为生计基础的农户产生了严重影响,急需寻求有效的适应策略。以地处青藏高原东缘的甘南高原为研究区,基于1963-2013年气象数据分析甘南高原气候变化趋势,采用入户调查数据分析了气候变化对农户生计的影响及农户采取的适应策略,并利用多元线性回归模型和多项logistic回归模型分析了影响农户适应策略选择的因素。结果显示：① 近50年甘南高原气温呈增加趋势,倾向率为0.23 ℃/10 a,降水呈减少趋势,倾向率为-5.21 mm/10a,63.45%的农户认为气候变化对其生计带来了严重影响;② 甘南高原农户的适应策略多样化指数为2.65,农户的人力资本、自然资本、金融资本及其对气候变化的严重性感知、适应效能感知及自我效能感知与适应策略多样化程度呈显著正相关;③ 甘南高原65.30%的农户采取各种组合型策略应对气候变化,尤以采取扩张+调整型组合策略的农户为多,农户的人力资本是影响其适应策略选择的最显著因素,社会资本与气候变化风险感知的影响次之,金融资本及气候变化适应效能感知的影响最弱。最后,提出提高农户适应气候变化能力的对策建议。

Farmers' climate change adaptation strategies in an ecologically vulnerable alpine region: A case of Gannan Plateau

Climate change has a serious impact on the farmers' livelihood depending on the natural resources, especially in the ecologically vulnerable alpine region. So it is urgent for us to search for effective strategies to adapt to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand the farmers' adaption strategy selection and the factors determining farmers' strategies to climate change in an ecologically vulnerable alpine region, and toward sustainable management of agriculture and farmers' livelihood. Selecting the Gannan Plateau as the study case, we analyze the climatic trend of Gannan Plateau based on the meteorological data during 1963-2013. Then, through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal, 548 households are investigated and sampled. Based on the investigation data, we analyze the impact of climate change on farmers' livelihood, and identify farmers' climate change adaptation strategies from different types of farmers in Gannan Plateau. The multivariable linear regression model and the multivariate logistic model with the aid of SPSS reveal farmers' perception to climate change, and rural household livelihood capital variables significantly determining the adaptation of climate change strategies. The results show: (1) In recent 50 years, the temperature showed an increasing trend, with a linear trend being 0.23 ℃/10a, and the precipitation showed a decreasing trend, with a linear trend being -5.21 mm/10a. Then, 63.45% of farmers believed that climate change have generated great influence on farmers' livelihood. Among them, 52.14% throught that climate change has brought a higher cost of production to farming and husbandry, and 46.73% of the farmers said that climate change has reduced the income of farming and husbandry. (2) The diversification index of farmers' adaptation strategy is 2.65 in this region. Besides, the human capital, natural capital, financial capital and farmers' severity perception, adaption effect perception, self-efficacy perception are positively correlated with the diversification index of adaption strategy.(3) Some 65.30% of the farmers made joint efforts to deal with climate change, and most of them selected the "expansive+accommodating" strategy, and the proportion of the farmers is 30.21%. The most important factor which influences the choices of climate change adaptation strategies is farmers' human capital; farmers' social capital and risk perception come second; the farmers' financial capital and adaptation efficacy perception have the weakest influence. Finally, we propose the measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and the suggestions to enhance the farmers' adaptation ability to climate change.