近30年中国中东部地区植物分布变化

在全球气候变暖背景下,某些植物分布范围会发生明显变化。但已有研究尚未对中国中东部地区近30年来的植物分布变化进行系统总结。采用荟萃分析方法（meta-analysis）,通过搜集已发表文献中关于植物引种、植被和物种分布及其变化等数据资料,得到近15年119个植物物种的251条分布变化证据,经与《中国木本植物分布图集》中记载的原分布记录（约20世纪80年代至90年代）对比,统计了不同物种的分布范围变化,并分析了变化原因。结果表明：近30年来,统计物种中80%在水平地带上发生北移,平均移动值约为3.37°;中东部地区植物分布响应气候变化的区域集中在北亚热带常绿阔叶林—暖温带落叶阔叶林过渡带以及中温带针阔叶混交林过渡带。分析发现20世纪50年代以来中国绝大多数地区有显著的增温趋势,升温导致温暖指数（Warmth Index）增加,满足植物生长的热量需求,是植物北移的重要原因。

Distribution change of plants over mid-eastern China during last 30 years

It is widely accepted that the distribution of some plant species may have changed significantly along with global warming. But the change of plant distribution in recent 30 years in central and eastern China has not been systematically summarized. Based on meta-analysis and data from Atlas of Woody Plants in China and other published studies, 251 distribution records of 119 plant species in the last 15 years are obtained. This study analyzed the distribution changes of these species through comparison of the original records, and further discussed the cause for these changes by calculating the Warmth Index (WI). The results show that: (1) 80% of the plant species in central and eastern China migrated northward in recent 30 years with a mean value of 3.37 degrees. (2) Most parts of China show a significant warming trend since the 1960s under the background of global warming, and the plant distribution changes are concentrated in the significant warming regions. (3) The migration has mainly occurred in the transitional regions from subtropical evergreen broad leaved forest to warm temperate deciduous broad leaved forest and coniferous-broad leaved mixed forest in the middle temperate zone. (4) The temperature rise provides more heat to satisfy the requirements of plants that cannot adapt to the natural environment in northern China before. For 83.61% of the species, the mean WI in the 2000-2014 period can meet the needs of plants better than the 1961-1990 period, so the migration is highly related to climate warming. In this paper, the trend and amplitude of the plant distribution changes are systematically summarized in the scale of species. The results can reflect the general impact of global change on the plant aspects in China, and it also provides a solid basis for scientific assessment of the impact of climate change on ecosystem. In the follow-up study, the response process and the change direction of plant under multiple factors influence will be further discussed.