Simple Spring-mass Model Simulation of Earthquake Cycle along the Nankai Trough in Southwest Japan

— Along the Nankai trough in southwest Japan, due to the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate, great earthquakes have occurred repeatedly. The rupture zone is divided into five segments. Historical documents show the characteristic features of the past several earthquake cycles, such as almost simultaneous rupture occurrence in segments in spite of different convergence rates, the recurrence time of 90 to 150 years, the existence of segment pairing in earthquake ruptures and the different coseismic slip behaviors in respective segments. Based on the rate and state friction law, we simulate these features with a simple block-spring model to investigate the physical mechanisms of earthquake cycle. Considering the actual fault parameters related to the geometry and the kinematics of the convergent plate in five segments, we calculate the model parameters for the corresponding blocks in the simulation. The features of the observed earthquake cycle are successfully reproduced by assigning the other following model parameters; (1) the stick-slip periods are the same (more than 150 years) for non-interacting blocks, (2) the different pairs of frictional parameters a-b and D _c are assigned in each segment, (3) the interactions between segments are large, (4) the convergence rate in the eastern Tokai segment is about half of those in the other segments.