Anomalous Seismicity and Accelerating Moment Release Preceding the 2001 and 2002 Earthquakes in Northern Baja California, Mexico |
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Authors: | Charles G. Sammis David D. Bowman Geoffrey King |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-0740, U.S.A 2. Department of Geological Sciences, California State University at Fullerton, Fullerton, CA, 92834-6850, U.S.A 3. Laboratoire de Tectonique, IPGP, 4, Place Jussieu, 75252, Paris, Cedex 5, France
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Abstract: | — An algorithm recently developed by RUNDLE et al. (2002) to find regions of anomalous seismic activity associated with large earthquakes identified the location of an M w = 5.6 earthquake near Calexico, Mexico. In this paper we analyze the regional seismicity before this event, and a nearby M w = 5.7 event, using time-to-failure algorithms developed by BOWMAN et al. (1998) and BOWMAN and KING (2001a,b). The former finds the radius of a circular region surrounding the epicenter that optimizes the time-to-failure acceleration of seismic release. The latter optimizes acceleration based on the expected stress accumulation pattern for a dislocation source. Both methods found a period of accelerating seismicity in an optimal region, the size of which agrees with previously proposed scaling relations. This positive result suggests that the Rundle algorithm may provide a useful technique to identify regions of accelerating seismicity, which can then be analyzed using signal optimization time-to-failure techniques. |
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