Anomalous Seismicity and Accelerating Moment Release Preceding the 2001 and 2002 Earthquakes in Northern Baja California, Mexico

— An algorithm recently developed by RUNDLE et al. (2002) to find regions of anomalous seismic activity associated with large earthquakes identified the location of an M _w = 5.6 earthquake near Calexico, Mexico. In this paper we analyze the regional seismicity before this event, and a nearby M _w = 5.7 event, using time-to-failure algorithms developed by BOWMAN et al. (1998) and BOWMAN and KING (2001a,b). The former finds the radius of a circular region surrounding the epicenter that optimizes the time-to-failure acceleration of seismic release. The latter optimizes acceleration based on the expected stress accumulation pattern for a dislocation source. Both methods found a period of accelerating seismicity in an optimal region, the size of which agrees with previously proposed scaling relations. This positive result suggests that the Rundle algorithm may provide a useful technique to identify regions of accelerating seismicity, which can then be analyzed using signal optimization time-to-failure techniques.