城市化发展对南京城市增温的影响分析

利用层次分析法和非线性拟合法,分析了南京市1980—2006年城市化进程,并选取了年平均最高、最低气温和年平均气温为研究对象,分别探讨了城市化与城市化增温的影响关系。在此基础上,建立了城市化效应与温度变化的线性模型,进一步分析了城市化效应对城市增温的影响程度。结果表明,1980—2006年南京城市化进程对城市化增温影响关系显著,城市化与增温呈显著相关;城市化对年平均最低气温的影响最为明显,对年平均气温的影响次之,对年平均最高气温的影响最小;1981—1998年城市化效应对城市增温的影响远远小于区域气候的影响,但1998—2006年前者的影响程度大于后者,增温率将近为后者的2倍。这说明,近年来南京市人类活动造成的温度变化已超过自然因素造成的变化,城市化增温趋势呈现出的阶段性特征与南京市城市化进程的特点相吻合。

THE EFFECT OF URBANIZATION ON AIR TEMPERATURE INCREASE A CASE OF NANJING

Using analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and nonlinear fitting methods, the urbanization in Nanjing from 1980 to 2006 and the relationship between the urbanization and temperature increase are analyzed. And the corresponding linear models are established. Furthermore, the Impacts of urbanization and regional climate on temperature increase are studied. It is shown that： （1） The urbanization has a great impact on temperature increase, and there is a strong correlation between them; （2） The urbanization has greater effect on the yearly average minimum temperature than on the yearly average temperature and has the least effect on the yearly average maximum temperature ： （3） Although the impact of urbanization is far less than that of regional climate on temperature increase in Nanjing from 1981 to 1998, the impact of the former is nearly two times of warming rate greater than that of the latter from 1998 to 2006, which means that temperature change caused by human activities is more than that caused by natural factors in Nanjing in recent years; （4） The stage trend of temperature increase by urbanization accords with the characteristics of the process of urbanization in Nanjing.