辽宁冬季气温时空分布特征及其预测概念模型

分析了1961—2004年辽宁冬季平均气温的时空分布特征。结果表明：辽宁冬季平均气温具有明显的南高北低、从沿海向内陆逐渐降低的趋势；冬季平均气温呈线性递增趋势，递增率为0.56 ℃/10 a，与全球气候变暖趋势一致。辽宁冬季气温存在3—5 a和24 a的周期，于1986 a前后发生了一次明显突变，突变前气温呈下降趋势，且以5 a左右的短周期波动为主，突变后开始显著的增温变化，并以10 a以上的长周期变化为主。在此基础上，分析了影响辽宁冬季气温异常的物理因子，建立了辽宁冬季冷暖的预测概念模型。

Spatiotemporal distributions of winter air temperature and its conceptual prediction model in Liaoning province

Spatiotemporal distributions of the mean winter air temperature from 1961 to 2004 in Liaoning province were analyzed. The results indicate that the mean winter air temperature in the south of Liaoning province is higher than that in the north of Liaoning province, and it decreases from the coastal to the inland. The mean winter air temperature linearly increases with the rate of 0.56 ℃/10 a, which accords with the tendency of the global warming. The cycles of winter air temperature are 3 to 5 years or 24 years, and the evident abrupt change occurs in 1986. The mean winter air temperature decreases before the abrupt change with a short cycle about 5 years, while it increases after the abrupt change with a long cycle over 10 years. According to the above-mentioned, the physical factors influencing winter air temperature in Liaoning province were discussed, and the conceptual prediction model was established.