| 关于经验性地震预报问题的思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 王振亚.关于经验性地震预报问题的思考[J].国际地震动态,2005(12):24-26. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王振亚 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃省地震局,兰州,730000 |
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| 摘 要： | 从科学认识活动的发展历程，特别是从科学观测性质两个方面论证了经验性预报存在的必然性和必要性，同时指出，只有将第三类观测提升为第二类观测才能真正实现物理预报。
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| 关 键 词： | 经验性预报 物理预报 第三类观测 第二类观测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-10-19 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-10-19 |
Thoughts on the Empirical Prediction |
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| Wang Zhenya.Thoughts on the Empirical Prediction[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2005(12):24-26. |
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| Authors: | Wang Zhenya |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province, Lanzhou, 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper proves the necessity and inevitability of empirical earthquake prediction,in accordance with the course of the scientific development and especially on the basis of the character of the scientific observation,and points out the only feasible way to genuinely realize the numerical dynamic forecast(physical forecast)that is to improve the grade of observation from third to second. |
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| Keywords: | empirical prediction physical forecast the third kind observation the second kind observation |
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