近百年冬季东亚大气活动中心年际一年代变率及其对中国气温的影响

利用历史海平面气压资料分析了近百年来冬季西伯利亚高压、阿留申低压强度和位置变化特征及与中国不同区域气温的关系。分析发现中国气温，西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压中心强度，西伯利亚高压１０３０百帕等压线南伸纬度和两个大气活动中心之间的气压梯度在过去的１００年中存在１９２０年代和１９８０年代的两次突变，其中以后一次突变更为显著。１００年的大气活动中心变化与中国１００年的气温有着显著的年代际相关。在过去的５０年中，冬季大气活动中心强度及其指数变化与中国北方和东部地区的冬季气温有显著的年际相关。大气活动中心在１９８０年代的显著突变与中国乃至全球气温的突变一致。大气活动中心的多种参数表明，１９８０年代后期以来大气环流正面临着重大调整。这种调整可能预示着中国年代际气温的转变。

Interannual and interdecadal variability of east asian acas and their impact on temperature of china in winter season for the last century

The interannual and interdecadal variability of the Siberian High (SH) and the Aleutian Low (AL) from aspects of strength and location for the past one hundred years as well as their possible relations with temperature changes over mainland China are investigated. The data sets used are the historical sea level pressure for 1871-1995 and surface air temperature (SAT) over China in the last 100 years. The results show that the SAT in different regions over China, central strength of the SH and the AL, the south-reaching latitude of the 1030 hPa contour of the SH and the pressure gradient between the SH and the AL experienced two obvious changes during this period. One occurred in the 1920s, with a more prominent one in the 1980s. These variations are closely linked with the change of winter temperature over China in the interdecadal timescale. In the last 50 years, there is a remarkable interannual correlation between the strength of Active Centers of Atmosphere (Acas) and the winter temperature of northern and eastern regions in China. The abrupt change of Acas in the 1980s is consistent with the rising of the SAT in China. Since the late 1980s, the atmospheric circulation is experiencing a remarkable modulation, which may cause the interdecadal transition of warming trend.