A method for a short-term forecast of the absorbed dose accumulation dynamics on the international space station based on radiation monitoring system data

Many papers are devoted to the prediction of radiation conditions on board of a spacecraft (Pichkhadze et al., 2004; Khamidullina et al., 2008; 2012), and a number of software systems for corresponding calculations have been developed: the US information system CREME96 (https://creme.isde.vander-bilt.edu/); European SPENVIS (http://www.spenvis.oma.be/intro.php); Russian SEREIS (Kuznetsov et al., 2001; Model’ kosmosa, 2007) and COSRAD (http://cosrad.sinp.msu.ru/manual.html; Kuznetsov et al., 2011) based on the models of the radiation environment in near-Earth space (Bashkirov et al., 1998; Nymmik, 2004; Model’ kosmosa, 2007; Kuznetsov et al., 2011). In this paper we propose a simple calculation algorithm of short-term (for a few days) forecasting of dynamics of the radiation dose on the International Space Station (ISS) in radiation environment undisturbed by solar proton events. This algorithm does not use radiation environment models and detailed ballistic calculations, while it uses data of the onboard radiation monitoring system (RMS) and empirical relations, obtained for ISS orbital motion.