| 灰色系统理论在绵阳市作物病虫害预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 李茂达,王明田,蔡元刚. 灰色系统理论在绵阳市作物病虫害预测中的应用[J]. 四川气象, 2009, 0(2): 54-55 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李茂达 王明田 蔡元刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 绵阳市气象局;四川省气象局; |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局“中国主要农作物病虫害气象等级预报业务系统建设”;;四川省气象局2009年重点课题“四川粮食安全的农业气象问题研究(20090501) |
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| 摘 要： | 作物病虫害的综合管理是一个多因素的复杂系统，针对这一特点，本文全面阐述了灰色系统模型的建立与预测方法，建立了作物病虫害测报中的GM（1，1）模型，测报准确性较高，模型模拟检验精度达到I级水平，发展系数〈0．3，可用于该地区作物病虫害作中长期预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 作物病虫害 预测 |
Application of Grey System Theory in Prediction of CropDiseases and Insect Pests |
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| LI Maoda,WANG Mingtian,CAI Yuangang. Application of Grey System Theory in Prediction of CropDiseases and Insect Pests[J]. Journal of Sichuan Meteorology, 2009, 0(2): 54-55 |
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| Authors: | LI Maoda WANG Mingtian CAI Yuangang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Mianyang Meteorological Bureau;Mianayng;621000;2.Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Bureau;Chengdu;610072 |
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| Abstract: | The management of crop diseases and insect pests was a complexity system.This paper introduced the basic models of grey system and the author gave the GM(1,1)model of crop diseases and insect pests using the grey system.The verify precision of model simulating comes to first level,its expand modulus(a) was less than 0.3.So the model could be used as mediunrterm or long-term forecasting for crop diseases and insect pests. |
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| Keywords: | grey system theory crop diseases and insect pests forecasting |
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