中国环境污染变动的时空特征及其经济驱动因素

基于2003-2013年经济与环境污染数据,运用EKC模型、Moran's I指数、LMDI指数,将污染排放的经济因素分解为规模效应、结构效应、能源消费效应、能源开发效应、技术污染效应,探讨中国环境污染变动的时空特征。结果表明,中国环境污染总量未到达EKC曲线拐点,处于EKC曲线左侧。在时间维度上,规模效应加剧了环境污染恶化,其他效应的变化间接改善了环境状况。在空间维度上,规模效应的高值聚集区是东部地区;结构效应、能源消费效应、技术污染效应的高值聚集区主要是中西部地区,低值聚集区多为东部和东北地区;能源开发效应是全国范围的整体偏低。中国污染重心在113°E~115°E,32°N~34.5°N的区域内移动,以北京—吉林—广东—浙江等省份所构成的区域,受不同经济效应影响,在向东、向西之间“抉择移动”。

The spatial-temporal characteristics and economic drivers of environmental pollution changes in China

Based on the economic and environmental pollution data from 2003 to 2013, using the EKC model, the Moran's I index and the LMDI index, this paper decomposes the economic factors of emissions into five effects: the scale effects, the structure effects, the energy consumption effects, the energy development effects and the technical pollution effects. Furthermore, it also probes the spatial-temporal characteristics of environmental pollution. The results show that the pollution in China is still in the left side of the EKC curve, which has not reached the inflection point of EKC curve; the autocorrelation on economic growth is decreasing yearly, while environmental pollution increases. In the time dimension, the scale effects aggravate the environmental degradation, while the changes of other effects improve the quality of environment indirectly. In the spatial dimension, eastern China is the areas with high value accumulation of the scale effects. The areas with high value accumulation of the structure effects, the energy consumption effects and the technical pollution effects are distributed in central and western China, while those with the low value accumulation are in the east and northeast China. The energy development effects are on the lower level nationwide. The barycenter of pollution in China mainly moves in the area between 113°E-115°E and 32°N-34.5°N. Also, the polluted area constituted by Beijing-Jilin-Guangdong-Zhejiang is moving eastward or westward due to different economic effects.