Three modelling approaches for seasonal streamflow droughts in southern Africa: the use of censored data

Abstract

Three approaches to modelling the duration of streamflow droughts at eight southern African sites are considered; a non-parametric method (that of Kaplan-Meier) is compared with the fitting of two simple parametric models: the exponential and Weibull. All techniques allow the instantaneous probability of a drought coming to an end to differ between wet and dry seasons, using the concept of censored data. Model-fitting is discussed, and the Kaplan-Meier estimates permit an assessment of the fit of the parametric models, with the aim of finding a parsimonious model for the data, which can be used for predictive purposes. In most cases considered herein, either the exponential or Weibull approach is found to be adequate.