Landslide displacement prediction based on combining method with optimal weight |
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Authors: | Xiuzhen Li Jiming Kong Zhenyu Wang |
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Institution: | (1) Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China;(2) Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China;(3) Sichuan Vocational and Technical College of Communications, Chengdu, 611130, Sichuan, China |
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Abstract: | Predicting the deformation and evolution tendency of landslides is essential to landslide disaster prevention and mitigation.
At present, most of the proposed models for landslide displacement prediction belong to single models. It is difficult to
accurately describe the deformation and evolution law only by a single model for the complexity of landslides and limitation
of the models. In this paper, we presented an application of linear combination model with optimal weight in landslide displacement
prediction. We took Huanlongxicun and Saleshan landslides in Gansu province of China as examples, firstly to build GM(1,1)
and Verhulst models for displacement prediction of the two landslides; then build two linear combination models of the two
landslides, on the basis of the combining theory with optimal weight and the prediction results of the GM(1,1) and Verhulst
models. The results show that the prediction accuracies of the combining models are much higher than those of the single models
for both Huanglongxicun landslide and Saleshan landslide. Therefore, the combining model with optimal weight is an effective
and feasible method to further improve accuracy for landslide displacement prediction. |
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