滩涂围垦区的PRED关系--以慈溪市为例

根据历史数据和2020年全面建设小康社会的标准,利用系统动力学(SD)模型,仿真研究了慈溪市未来政策实施后PRED(滩涂围垦区的人口、资源、环境和发展不协调简称为PRED问题)关系的不同情况。同时指出,对于慈溪市来说,单方面追求经济的快速发展、以牺牲环境作为代价的方案1和把环境保护作为第一目标、经济慢速发展的方案2都是不可取的,只有人口、资源、环境和发展同时兼顾的方案3才是首选方案。

Relationship between population, resource, environment and development of reclamation area of tidal flats-a case of Cixi City

According to historical data and standard to build a small-scale wealthy society in 2020,using a system dynamics(SD) model,different conditions of relationship of population,resource,environment and development(PRED) in Cixi City after future policy application are artificially researched.It is pointed out at the same time that,in regard to Cixi City,the alternative 1 to only seek for speedy economical development at the price for sacrificing environment and the alternative 2 to first aim at environment protection at the price for developing slowly economy do not produce good results.Only the alternative 3 of giving attention to population,resource,environment and development is a first selection.