最大风速变化特征及再现期极值估算

利用枣庄市1971~2008年各月10 min最大风速资料,对枣庄最大风速统计分析。发现38年中枣庄春季、夏季、秋季、冬季和全年的最大风速都呈下降趋势,年最大风速以每10年1.47 m/s的幅度下降,冬季下降最快,达到每10年降低1.67 m/s,夏季、秋季降低幅度很接近,都小于年平均最大风速降幅,春季最大风速下降最慢,且最大风速极值主要出现在春季。枣庄各月最大风速变化曲线呈递减的"两峰两谷"形。用柯尔莫哥洛夫方法对耿贝尔分布函数进行拟合优度的检验,其显著水平达到0.05,因此利用耿贝尔分布函数估算出枣庄未来若干年的最大风速极值,以满足生产建设规划与设计中对最大风速极值的要求。

Characteristics of Maximum Wind Velocity and Estimation of Extreme Maximum Velocity in Return Period

Based on the 10-minute maximum wind velocity data of Zaozhuang from 1971 to 2008,the characteristics of maximum wind velocity are analyzed.The results show that the annual maximum wind velocity displayed a decreasing trend in spring,summer,autumn,and winter in the past 40 years.The annual maximum wind velocity had a downward trend of 1.47 m/s per 10 years,decreased most quickly in winter,with the decreasing rate being 1.67 m/s per 10 years.The decreasing rates of maximum wind velocity in summer and autumn are lower than that of annual maximum wind velocity.The spring maximum wind velocity descended most slowly,and the extreme maximum wind velocity was mainly appearing in spring.The monthly maximum wind velocity shows a decreasing trend with a two-peak-two-valley pattern.By using the method of Gumbel distribution,the extreme maximum wind velocity for occurring once every 10,20,30,50,100,200,500,and 1000 years are estimated.It can satisfy the needs of users.