| Abstract: | A rapid warming caused by the release of greenhouse gases could result in the displacement of climatic controls that limit the current ranges of many species. Projected northward displacement for loblolly pine is over 400 km, with only a narrow region of overlap between the current and projected future range limits. A model of dispersal developed for loblolly pine is presented. The model utilizes a GIS to assess the critical influence of land use patterns on climate change-induced migration through modern landscapes. Results from two relatively large (150 × 150 km) study areas in the eastern United States suggest that potential migration rates may fall short by at least an order of magnitude of that necessary to track projected range shifts. Management options of species transplanting and the establishment of greenways are explored with the model. Species that are unable to keep pace with changing range limits may experience a reduction in population size and exist in climatic disequilibrium. |
