1961—2020年乌鲁木齐市气候舒适度变化[*]

基于乌鲁木齐市及其周边9个气象站1961-2020年气候资料以及综合气候舒适度指数模型，采用统计学方法和ArcGIS的精细化空间插值技术对近60a气候舒适度时空变化进行分析。结果表明，乌鲁木齐市气候舒适度及其变化具有明显的区域性和季节性差异:（1）气候舒适度指数的年内变化,平原地带呈双峰双谷的“M”型，山区为单峰单谷的“∩”型。（2）受气温升高、相对湿度增大、风速减小、日照时数减少的综合影响，近60a平原地带春、秋、冬季气候舒适度指数显著（P=0.05）增大，夏季显著减小；山区夏、秋季气候舒适度指数显著增大，冬、春季变化不明显。（3）近30a（199l-2020年）较前30a(196l-1990年)，春季和秋季平原地带气候较舒适区海拔上限升高了100-150m，山区气候较不舒适区和不舒适区向高海拔抬升了50-100m；夏季北部平原气候较舒适区海拔上限升高了100-150m，山前倾斜平原至中山带的气候舒适区向高海拔抬升了约100m，高山带气候较不舒适区和不舒适区也向高海拔抬升并压缩了50-100m；冬季虽气候舒适度指数有所增大，但全市属于气候不舒适区的状况未发生改变。

Climate comfort change in Urumqi in recent 60 years

Based on the climate data of Urumqi and its surrounding 9 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020 and the comprehensive climate comfort index model, the spatio-temporal change of climate comfort in recent 60 years were analyzed by using statistical methods and refined spatial interpolation technology of ArcGIS. The results show that there are obvious regional and seasonal differences in climate comfort and its changes in Urumqi, (1) the monthly change of climate comfort index in plain area shows double peak and double valley type, and that in mountainous area is single peak and single valley type in the year. (2) Under the comprehensive influence of the increase of air temperature and relative humidity, the decrease of wind speed and sunshine hours in recent 60 years, the climate comfort index in spring, autumn and winter increased significantly (P = 0.05) ,and decreased significantly in summer, in the plain area. And the climate comfort index increased significantly in summer and autumn, did not change significantly in winter and spring in mountainous area. (3) In recent 30 years compared with the previous 30 years, the upper limit of climate more comfort zone in plain area increased by 100-150m in spring and autumn, the less comfortable zone and uncomfortable zone in mountain area moved 50-100m to high altitude. In summer, the upper limit of the more comfort zone in the northern plain increased by 100-150m, the climate comfort zone from piedmont plain to mid-mountain belt moved by about 100m to the high altitude, and the less comfortable zone and uncomfortable zone in the high mountain belt also moved and compressed by 50-100m to the high altitude. Although the climate comfort index has increased in winter, the situation that Urumqi belongs to climate uncomfortable area has not changed.