中国海水养殖净碳汇效率的空间演进与外溢效应

提高海水养殖净碳汇效率是中国实现碳中和目标的重要途径之一。文章运用超效率SBM模型测算2008—2019年中国沿海9地海水养殖净碳汇效率，并对其全局和局部空间自相关性进行分析，然后采用动态空间杜宾模型探究海水养殖净碳汇效率的影响因素及其空间溢出效应。研究发现：中国海水养殖净碳汇效率水平整体较高且呈上升态势，但地区差异明显。从全局看，地区海水养殖净碳汇效率存在空间正相关关系，集聚效应显著，但随着时间的推移，空间集聚程度逐渐减弱；从局部看，研究期间部分地区净碳汇效率的空间演进路径未发生变动，呈现出一定的路径依赖特征。科技推广、产量结构对海水养殖净碳汇效率具有促进作用，经济规模、专业人员投入强度具有抑制作用；从空间溢出效应看，专业人员投入强度、科技推广和产量结构对邻近地区净碳汇效率存在正向溢出效应，经济规模存在负向溢出效应。

Spatial Evolution and Spillover Effect of Net Carbon Sink Efficiency of Mariculture in China

Improving the net carbon sink efficiency of mariculture is one of the important ways for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. This paper used the super efficiency SBM model to calculate the net carbon sink efficiency of mariculture in 9 coastal provinces of China from 2008 to 2019, and analyzed its global and local spatial auto-correlation. Then, the dynamic spatial durbin model was used to explore the influencing factors of the net carbon sink efficiency of mariculture and its spatial spillover effect. The results showed that: (1) The net carbon sink efficiency of mariculture in China was generally high and rising, but there were obvious regional differences. (2) From the global perspective, the net carbon sink efficiency of mariculture between provinces had a spatial positive correlation, and the agglomeration effect was significant, but the degree of spatial agglomeration gradually weakened with the passage of time; from the local perspective, the spatial evolution path of net carbon sink efficiency in some provinces had not changed during the study period, showing a certain path dependence. (3) Science and technology promotion and yield structure had a promoting effect on the net carbon sink efficiency of mariculture, while economic scale and professional personnel investment intensity had an inhibitory effect; from the perspective of spatial spillover effect, professional personnel investment intensity,science and technology promotion and yield structure had positive spillover effect on the net carbon sink efficiency of adjacent areas, while economic scale had negative spillover effect.