Synoptic and mesoscale study of a severe convective outbreak with the nonhydrostatic Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model |
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Authors: | A Erfani A Méthot R Goodson S Bélair K-S Yeh J Côté R Moffet |
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Institution: | (1) Prairies Storm Prediction Center, Meteorological Service of Canada, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, CA;(2) Techniques, Training and Technology, Meteorological Service of Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada, CA;(3) Meteorological Research Branch, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, CA;(4) Canadian Meteorological Centre, Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada, CA;(5) Data Assimilation Office, 910.3 NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre, Greenbelt, MD, |
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Abstract: | Summary ?A nonhydrostatic 4-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with detailed microphysics included, was
used to forecast the initiation, development, and structure of a tornado-producing supercell storm that occurred near Pine
Lake (Alberta, Canada) on 15 July 2000. Examination of observations and comparison with conceptual models indicate that this
storm is a good example of supercell storms that regularly produce summertime severe weather over Alberta.
It was found that the high-resolution model was able to reproduce the early initiation of convective activity along the Rocky
Mountains foothills, as well as the rapid northeastward propagation towards the Pine Lake area and the subsequent intensification
into a supercell storm. The general structures of the forecasted convective system correspond well with conceptual representations
of such events. Overall, this high-resolution forecast of the Pine Lake supercell storm was a significant improvement over
the current operational version of the GEM model (24 km), which was not able to intensify the foothills’ convection into a
supercell storm. Finally, it was found that the nonhydrostatic version of the model produces better trajectory and propagation
speed of the convective system, as compared with the hydrostatic one.
Received March 20, 2001; revised August 24, 2001 |
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