| Abstract: | Real data on wadi flood flows from Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar were used to develop methodologies for the prediction of annual maximum flows and average monthly flows in the Arabian Gulf states. For the prediction of annual maximum floods, three methods have been investigated. In the first method, regional curves were developed and used together with the mean annual flood flow, estimated from the characteristics of the drainage basin, to estimate flood flows at a location in the basin. The second method fits data to various probability distribution functions, with a developed methodology introduced to account for floods generated by more than one system of climate, and the best fitted function was used for flood estimates. In the third method, only floods over a threshold, which depends on characteristics of the drainage basin, were considered and modelled. For the prediction of average monthly flows, stochastic simulation approaches of flood frequency analysis were used. Each of the prediction methods was verified by being applied in 40 different drainage basins. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were made on the best method to be applied (at present) by design engineers in the Arabian Gulf states. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
