| Abstract: | A method for using remotely sensed snow cover information in updating a hydrological model is developed, based on Bayes' theorem. A snow cover mass balance model structure adapted to such use of satellite data is specified, using a parametric snow depletion curve in each spatial unit to describe the subunit variability in snow storage. The snow depletion curve relates the accumulated melt depth to snow‐covered area, accumulated snowmelt runoff volume, and remaining snow water equivalent. The parametric formulation enables updating of the complete snow depletion curve, including mass balance, by satellite data on snow coverage. Each spatial unit (i.e. grid cell) in the model maintains a specific depletion curve state that is updated independently. The uncertainty associated with the variables involved is formulated in terms of a joint distribution, from which the joint expectancy (mean value) represents the model state. The Bayesian updating modifies the prior (pre‐update) joint distribution into a posterior, and the posterior joint expectancy replaces the prior as the current model state. Three updating experiments are run in a 2400 km2 mountainous region in Jotunheimen, central Norway (61°N, 9°E) using two Landsat 7 ETM+ images separately and together. At 1 km grid scale in this alpine terrain, three parameters are needed in the snow depletion curve. Despite the small amount of measured information compared with the dimensionality of the updated parameter vector, updating reduces uncertainty substantially for some state variables and parameters. Parameter adjustments resulting from using each image separately differ, but are positively correlated. For all variables, uncertainty reduction is larger with two images used in conjunction than with any single image. Where the observation is in strong conflict with the prior estimate, increased uncertainty may occur, indicating that prior uncertainty may have been underestimated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
