Abstract: | This study first explores the role of spatial heterogeneity, in both the saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks and rainfall intensity r, on the integrated hydrological response of a natural slope. On this basis, a mathematical model for estimating the expected areal‐average infiltration is then formulated. Both Ks and r are considered as random variables with assessed probability density functions. The model relies upon a semi‐analytical component, which describes the directly infiltrated rainfall, and an empirical component, which accounts further for the infiltration of surface water running downslope into pervious soils (the run‐on effect). Monte Carlo simulations over a clay loam soil and a sandy loam soil were performed for constructing the ensemble averages of field‐scale infiltration used for model validation. The model produced very accurate estimates of the expected field‐scale infiltration rate, as well as of the outflow generated by significant rainfall events. Furthermore, the two model components were found to interact appropriately for different weights of the two infiltration mechanisms involved. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |