城市应急服务气象数值模拟系统的建立与应用

针对城市应急需求，建立了突发公共事件应急气象数值模拟系统。该系统主要包含两个模型：①以中尺度数值模式MM5和区域大气模拟系统RAMS 60为核心的快速污染扩散数值预报模型，该模型具有精细准确、可预测性的优点，应急人员在接到命令后15 min内可完成事发后1 h的气体扩散应急产品的制作；②以街区模式和高斯模式为核心的快速应急气象服务软件，它具有操作简洁、安装方便、产品输出快速直观的优点，能够在2～3 min内完成事发地点应急产品制作。通过一年的日常城市应急演习及奥运会、残奥会的应用证明，该服务系统较好的满足了应急指挥时效性、服务性的需求，为北京城市应急指挥人员现场处置提供即时科学依据。

Development and Application of Meteorological Numerical Simulation System for Urban Emergency Service

A meteorological numerical simulation system for urban emergency service is established, according to the needs of urban emergency responses. There are two main models included in the system： Pollution Diffusion Rapid Numerical Prediction Model （PDRNPM）, which is mainly based on MM5 and RAMS 6.0, and Rapid Emergency Meteorological Service Software （REMSS）, which is based on the urban sub domain model and the Gauss model. PDRNPM is better for its precision and predictability, allowing the emergency staff to predict the gas diffusion situation of one hour later within 15 minutes. REMSS is easy to install, operate and give responses quickly, and can simulate gas diffusion within 2 to 3 minutes once emergency situation is triggered. Applied in the Beijing Olympics Games 2008 and Paralympics Games 2008 and routine emergency exercise of Beijing, it is proved that the system can well meet the demands of emergency command due to its time effectiveness and applicalibility and can provide reliable real time references for the Beijing Emergency Commode Center.