东陇海产业带地区PRED系统综合评价研究

区域PRED系统可持续发展是当今世界各国普遍关心的重大课题。在区域PRED系统理论的指导下，采用定量分析方法对1990-2003年东陇海产业带地区PRED系统进行综合评价，结果表明：该区域人口、资源、环境与经济发展变化趋势是非一致性、非同向性的；资源问题已成为制约该区域PRED系统持续发展的主要因素；该区域PRED系统的可持续发展是人口、资源、环境与经济发展4个子系统相互作用的综合表征，其中经济发展起着主导作用。建立PRED系统的综合决策机制，构建系统配套的PRED系统综合政策框架体系，是促进该区域PRED系统可持续发展的关键。

ON COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF PRED SYSTEM IN DONG-LONGHAI INDUSTRIAL BELT

Sustainable development of regional PRED system is one of the most important issues in the world today.Based on the region PRED system theory,this paper applies the quantitative analysis method to evaluate the comprehensive index of PRED system and correlation coefficient between PRED system and subsystems to probe the change laws of PRED system of Donglonghai industrial belt in Jiangsu Province according to the evaluation result.The change regularity of PRED system goes as follows:the trend of population,resource,environment and development has take on obvious inconsistency and different direction;resource problems has become mostly factor that restricting sustainable development of the regional PRED system;the relativity among indexes of population,resource,environment and development,indicates that change of each factor can give rise to the change of other factors in the system,therefore,preserving the integrated coordination of each subsystem is the key to raise the synthetically level of regional sustainable development,economic development subsystem of them plays an leading role;it has been become advantage to build total decision-making dynamic and integrated policy system of frames to promote the sustainable development of the PRED system in Donglonghai industrial belt.