异常冷冬的短期气候预测方法探讨

本文通过对四川省广安市近50年冬季气候资料的聚类分析,研究冷冬气候的演变规律;结合太阳黑子活动资料、夏季极端异常气候事件分析,发现广安市异常冷冬年的发生发展和一月太阳黑子活动存在着密切的相关关系,与本市盛夏期间极端气候事件有明显的周期性对应关系;从而探索得出对异常冷冬年的短期气候预测方法,为准确预测冷冬,特别是预测异常冷冬将发挥重要的作用。 

The Shot-term Climate Forecasting Methods of Abnormal Cold Winter

According to the temper data of winter in Sichuan Guang'an in recent 50 years, by using the methods of Statistics, the development of cold winter is found.By analyzing the data of sunspot and abnormal climate in summer, we found the cold winter has relationships with the sunspot in January and the abnormal climate in summer.The shot-term weather and climate forecasting methods of cold winter is very important to forecast abnormal winter ahead of time.