Error in shear-wave polarization and time splitting

Shear‐wave polarization and time delay are attributes commonly used for fracture detection and characterization. In time‐lapse analysis these parameters can be used as indicators of changes in the fracture orientation and density. Indeed, changes in fracture characteristics provide key information for increased reservoir characterization and exploitation. However, relative to the data uncertainty, is the comparison of these parameters over time statistically meaningful? We present the uncertainty in shear‐wave polarization and time delay as a function of acquisition uncertainties, such as receiver and source misorientation, miscoupling and band‐limited random noise. This study is applied to a time‐lapse borehole seismic survey, recorded in Vacuum Field, New Mexico. From the estimated uncertainties for each survey, the uncertainty in the difference between the two surveys is 31° for the shear‐wave polarization angle and 4 ms for the shear‐wave time delay. Any changes in these parameters greater than these error estimates can be interpreted with confidence. This analysis can be applied to any time‐lapse measurement to provide an interval of confidence in the interpretation of shear‐wave polarization angles and time splitting.