近五百年厄尔尼诺事件活动特征及其与福建旱,涝关系

本文统计了近五百年厄尔尼诺事件与福建旱、涝的关系,初步探讨了全球大气候背景、太阳黑子活动与厄尔尼诺事件的关系及其共同作用对福建旱、涝的影响。结果表明,厄尔尼诺事件发生在太阳黑子的下降枝阶段比上升枝阶段的频率高;大气候背景的冷期阶段发生厄尔尼诺事件比暖期的频率少,而过渡期阶段比冷、暖期阶段发生频率更高;厄尔尼诺事件的时间序列分布存在着较明显的阶段性特征。厄尔尼诺不同特征条件下,福建旱、涝出现的概率不同。

Varied characteristics of last 500a EL-Nino events and it''''s velation with drought or waterlogging in Fujian

This paper, based on the statistical data of last 500a, makes a preliminary study of the global general climatic background, the correlation between the sun's spots and EL-Nino events, and their joint effects on drought and waterlogging in Fujian. An analysis of the statistical data shows that the rainfall(drought and waterlogging) responds in a certain degree to different types of EL-Nino in Fujian. The frequency of EL-Nino events in the descent branch period of the sun's spots is higer than in the rising branch period. And the frequency of EL-Nino events in a cool period of the global general climatic background is lower than in dawarm period. But the frequency of EL-Nino events in a transition period is higher than in a warm or cool period. A time series of EL-Nino events presents apparently a periodic distribution. The probability of drought and waterlogging changes with above-mentioned different conditions.