基于城市化的中国能源消费前景分析及对碳排放的相关思考

工业化和城市化是中国未来的两大发展趋势.以往对中国未来能源消费及碳排放的预测大都是从工业化层面出发,忽略了城市化过程导致的生活能源消费的巨大增量.推动城市化进程是提升生活质量、满足人的基本权利的重要手段;立足城市化进程,保障人均能源消费及碳排放空间是确保人人享有基本的生存权和发展权的重要基础.从对中国城市化进程的发展态...

Analysis on the Future Energy Consumption and Preliminary Discussion on Carbon Emission of China from the Perspective Urbanization

Industrialization and urbanization are two major trends of China's future development. Former predictions on China′s future energy consumption and carbon emission mostly started from the aspect of industrialization, which ignored the huge amount of residential energy consumption related with urbanization. Urbanization is of great importance for improving life quality and satisfies man′s right for subsistence and development. We proposed three core items related with China′s urbanization, i.e. the increasing of urbanization rate, the improving of urban residents′ life quality, and the shaking off of poverty of poverty stricken people. Resulted indicated that there are considerable room and obvious trends of residential energy increasing. Model consisting of productive and residential energy consumption was built based on the analysis, and the modeling results indicated that although the increasing of productive energy consumption would slow down, or even the amount tend to be stable, the total energy consumption will tend to grow significantly thanking for the fast increase of residential energy consumption. The peak of total energy consumption will be far away from former judgments. Therefore, it seems impossible that the carbon emission would decline in the near future for the close relationship between carbon emission and energy consumption.  At last, the authors suggest that, on the one hand, we promote green development and low carbon economy; on the other hand, we pay more carefulness on the international negotiation on reduction and space allocation of carbon emission, in order to avoid putting ourselves in a passive position. 