社会—生态系统综合风险防范的凝聚力模式

在综合风险防范“凝聚力”概念的基础上，从社会—生态系统综合风险防范的“凝聚力”基本原理、凝聚力形成中的协同效能、凝聚力实现手段、凝聚力优化对提高系统抗打击能力的作用等方面系统研究了“凝聚力”的科学内涵，并初步建立了“凝聚力”的模式，以期完善现有综合风险防范理论体系。结果表明：协同宽容、协同约束、协同放大和协同分散四个基本原理阐述了社会—生态系统综合风险凝聚力在协同运作上的四种表现，同时也是凝聚力在“凝心”和“聚力”具体问题上的4 种优化目标的阐释；凝聚力模式将四个协同原理及其优化目标转化为社会认知普及化、成本分摊合理化、组合优化智能化、费用效益最大化等一系列手段，实现了社会—生态系统综合风险防范产生的共识最高化、成本最低化、福利最大化以及风险最小化；运用复杂系统建模和仿真的方法，通过设计社会—生态系统结构和功能的表达，验证了随着系统凝聚力的提高，系统抵抗局部和全局打击的能力均得以增强，而且，可通过优化社会—生态系统中节点的结构和功能，以达到提升系统凝聚力的目的；凝聚力模式补充了灾害系统中脆弱性、恢复性、适应性等概念在阐释社会—生态系统综合风险防范问题上存在的缺陷。

Integrated risk governance consilience mode of social-ecological systems

Based on the concept of ‘consilience’ in integrated risk governance, this paper aims to develop scientific meanings of consilience in a systemic manner from the perspectives of fundamental principles, synergistic efficacy, operational means, and optimization process to improve a system's robustness to resist external disturbs. This paper proposed a new consilience mode for the purpose of complementing the existing theoretical system of integrated risk governance. The results presented in this paper show that the four proposed synergistic principles (tolerance, constraint, amplification and diversification) can well describe the characteristics of consilience in integrated risk governance of a socioecological system. The principles set four optimization goals in terms of ‘consenting in minds’ and ‘gathering in force’ in the consilience theory. The consilience mode demonstrates how the synergistic principles and their optimization goals are converted into a series of tasks including the popularization of social perception, the rationalization of cost allocation, the systemization of optimization and the maximization of cost benefit. With implementation of all these tasks, the consensus and social welfare can be maximized while the cost and risk can be minimized in the integrated risk governance of the socio-ecological system. The modeling and simulation results show that a complex network system's robustness can be improved with increased system consilience when facing local or global disturbs. Moreover, this kind of improvement can be achieved by optimizing the structure and function of nodes in a socio-ecological system. The consilience mode also complements current disaster system theory in which the concepts of vulnerability, resilience and adaptation may face limitation of addressing integrated risk governance problems in a socio-ecological system.