中国省际水资源利用效率与空间溢出效应测度

基于省际水足迹和灰色水足迹等的面板数据，本文利用带有考虑和不考虑非期望产出的数据包络分析方法测度了1997-2011 年中国31 个省市区的水资源利用效率；建立基于经济—空间距离函数的空间权重矩阵，探讨水资源利用效率的空间自相关关系；利用绝对β趋同模型验证水资源利用效率增长趋势存在绝对β趋同，考虑和不考虑非期望产出情况下达到1/2 趋同程度的时间分别约为52.6 和5.6 年；运用空间Durbin 计量模型研究了中国省际水资源利用效率的空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1） 考虑和不考虑非期望产出的中国省际水资源利用效率都具有显著的空间自相关性；（2） 考虑和不考虑非期望产出的空间自回归系数ρ分别为0.278 和0.507，且都在1%的水平上显著，说明中国水资源利用效率存在空间溢出效应；（3） 考虑非期望产出情况下中国各省市的教育经费、交通基础设施、工业和农业用水比重因素正向影响水资源利用效率，外商直接投资、万元工业增加值用水量、人均用水量、降水总量因素负向影响水资源利用效率；（4） 不考虑非期望产出情况下中国各省市的劳均GDP因素较大正向显著影响，而交通基础设施和万元工业增加值用水量因素变为不显著影响；（5） 不考虑非期望产出的水资源利用效率测度对中国水资源真实利用情况出现偏差估计及对政策制定产生误导，考虑环境因素到水资源利用效率测度更为合理。

Water resource utilization efficiency and its spatial spillover effects measure in China

Based on provincial panel data of water footprint and grey water footprint, and with the help of data envelopment analysis model considering and without considering the undesirable output, this paper estimates the water resources utilization efficiency in China from 1997 to 2011. The spatial weighting matrix based on economy-space distance function is established to discuss spatial autocorrelation of water resources utilization efficiency. With the help of absolute β convergence model, this paper concludes that there exists β convergence in the water resources utilization efficiency. Under the condition of considering and without considering the undesirable output, it takes about 52.6 and 5.6 years respectively to achieve the extent of half of convergence. By mean of the space Durbin econometric model, this paper studies spatial spillover effects of the provincial water resources utilization efficiency in China. The results show that, 1) With considering and without considering the undesirable output, there is significant spatial correlation in provincial water resource efficiency in China. 2) Under the two cases, the spatial autoregressive coefficients (ρ) are 0.278 and 0.507 respectively, at 1% significance level. There exist the spatial spillover effects of provincial water resources utilization efficiency. 3) With considering the undesirable output, these factors of the education funds, the transportation infrastructure, and the proportion of industrial and agricultural water have positive impacts. These factors of foreign direct investment, the industrial added value water consumption in ten thousand yuan, per capita water consumption, and the total precipitation have negative impacts. 4) Without considering the unexpected output, the factor of GDP per labor has a greater positive significant influence on the water resources utilization efficiency. However the facts of industrial added value water consumption in ten thousand yuan and the transportation infrastructure have no significant influence. 5) Regardless of undesirable output of water resources utilization efficiency, the assessment of the present real water resources utilization in China will be distorted and policy-making will be misled. The water efficiency measure considering environmental factors (such as gray water footprint) is more reasonable.