基于Weibull时间序列函数的动态沉陷曲线模型

研究开采沉陷灾害发生及发展的动态过程具有重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。因采场上覆岩层及采矿过程的复杂性，全面研究采矿过程中上覆岩层的移动及地表的沉陷具有很大的难度，以研究地表沉陷区观测点下沉变化过程的时间序列为切入点，对开采沉陷的动态过程进行了研究。通过研究地表沉陷区观测点下沉量的时间序列发现，Weibull（韦布尔）函数可较准确地拟合和描述地表观测点的下沉过程曲线。煤层开采地表移动过程的FLAC3D模拟研究发现，同一沉陷区内各观测点的下沉过程在时间和空间上具有独立性。在该基础上，将概率积分沉陷曲线模型与Weibull时间序列函数相结合，给出沉陷区主剖面的动态下沉、倾斜和曲率曲线的唯象学模型，经实例证明建模思路是可行的。

Dynamic surface subsidence curve model based on Weibull time function

Studying the dynamic process of the occurrence and development of ground surface subsidence disaster due to underground mining has important theoretical significance and engineering application value. Because of the complexity of the overlying strata and coal mining process, it is difficult to comprehensive study the strata movement and surface subsidence in the mining process. So，research the subsidence of surface observation spot is a starting point to study the dynamic surface subsidence in the coal mining process. It is discovered that the Weibull function can more accurately to fit and describe the subsidence curves of the observing spots in mining subsidence area through the study of subsidence time series of surface subsidence observing Points. It is discovered that the sinking processes of the subsidence observing Points in same subsidence area are independent in space and time through the study of the simulation of mining by the numerical analysis software FLAC3D. On this basic, the phenomenological model of the subsidence, curvature and slope curve of the section on subsidence area is established through combining the probability integral settlement curve model and the Weibull time sequence function of the surface subsidence of the observing points. Some mining area observation data proved this modeling and model is feasible.