青藏高原东南缘活动断裂的地震应变能释放系统研究

本文以青藏高原东南缘为研究区域，利用G-R震级能量经验公式和Benioff地震应变能释放曲线，对该区域内1500年以来的历史地震应变能释放进行了系统性的研究。文中给出了各断裂带和断块区的地震应变能释放周期表，及相应的地震危险性。分析发现研究区域地震应变能的释放具有东强西弱，南强北弱的特征，整体上各断层断块区的历史地震应变能释放符合准周期模式，某些断层和断块区上的地震周期具有某种程度上的同步现象。青藏高原东南缘现今处于大释放期中，地震的危险性不能忽视。局部结果显示，安宁河-则木河断裂带、小江断裂带的危险性很高，对于这些危险区要重点跟踪研究。今后仍需结合不同研究方法来提高地震危险性评估的可靠性。

Seismic Strain Energy Release of Active Faults in the Southeastern Margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Using the methods of the Gutenberg magnitude energy empirical formula and the Benioff seismic strain energy release curve, we make a systematic study on seismic strain energy release of historical earthquakes in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1500. This paper provides a periodic table of the earthquake strain energy release in the fault zones and the fault block areas. The study shows that seismic strain energy release is strong in the east and south, and weak in the west and north. The overall seismic strain energy release of the Yushu-Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system is consistent with the quasi-periodic pattern. The seismic cycle of some fault zones and fault block areas shows synchronization to a certain extent. The risk cannot be ignored in the current large release period of seismic strain energy in the southeastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau. Local seismic risk analysis shows that seismic risk is very high on the Anninghe-Zemuhe and Xiaojiang fault zones. These dangerous zones need follow-up research. In future, it is necessary to combine different research methods to improve the reliability of seismic risk assessment.