2000—2018年克孜河流域生态系统脆弱性、服务功能价值及风险评价

在人类活动强度不断增加的情境下，掌握区域生态环境质量现状，可为区域生态风险防范提供科学支持。基于2000、2010、2018年遥感影像数据，采用主成分分析方法、生态系统服务功能价值及生态风险模型，探究克孜河流域生态脆弱性、服务功能价值及风险的时空分异特征。结果表明：（1）克孜河流域重度脆弱区面积明显增长，18年增长204.78%，空间分布由高到低分别为中游区域、下游区域及上游区域。（2）18年生态系统服务功能价值减少65.20%。其中作为生态服务主要贡献者的天然林草价值下降43.05%；生态系统服务功能价值空间分布呈现由西向东，由绿洲向荒漠递减的分布趋势。（3）生态风险空间分布由高到低分别为流域中游、下游及上游区域；流域高风险区面积18年增长112.48%，整体分布已由以低风险为主转变为低风险与中、高风险各占约50%，说明流域生态环境受损严重。

Comprehensive assessment of ecosystem vulnerability,the value of service function and risk in Kezi River Basin in 2000-2018

Under the continuous increase of the intensity of human activities,finding out the current situation of regional ecological environment quality may provide scientific and technical support for regional ecological risk prevention. Based on the remote sensing image data of 2000,2010 and 2018,this study uses principal component analysis,ecological service function value and ecological risk model to explore the temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of ecological vulnerability,service function value and risk in Kezi River basin. The results show that:(1)the seriously vulnerable area of the Kezi River basin shows an obvious growth trend,with an increase of 204.78% in 18 years;its spatial distribution is the middle reaches,the lower reaches and the upper reaches from high to low.(2) the functional value of ecosystem services decreased by 65.20% in 18 years.Among them,the natural forest and grass,as the main contributor to ecological services,also significantly decreased by 43.05%;the spatial distribution of the functional value of ecological services showed a decreasing trend from west to east,from oasis to desert.(3)the spatial distribution of ecological risk from high to low is the middle reaches,the lower reaches and the upper reaches of the basin,respectively;the area of the high risk area of the basin has increased by 112.48% in the past 18 years,and the overall distribution has changed from low risk to about 50% of low risk and 50% of medium and high risk,indicating that the ecological environment of the basin has been seriously damaged.