盛夏数值预报模式对副高预报性能检验及其释用

利用１９９８年６～８月Ｔ１０６和ＥＣＭＷＦ数值预报产品，对副高预报能力和产品质量进行了全面检验；通过对数值预报产品加工处理后获取的有关参数和特征量进行综合分析，在业务预报中对重大天气预报实例进行释用。结果表明，ＥＣＭＷＦ对副高增衰进退的运动趋势预报能力较强，对中期重大天气过程和雨区预报有重要指导意义。Ｔ１０６９６小时预报基本可信，１２０小时以后预报能力锐减，是模式改进的重点

The Subtropical High Forecast Verification and Interpretation of the NWP in Summer

Using the NWP products of the T106 model and the ECMWF from June to August 1998, the forecasting ability of the subtropical high and the confidence of the products are estimated. The parameters and the characteristic variables calculated from NWP products are analyzed. The products are interpreted for the significant weather events in the operational forecasting. The result shows that the ECMWF has powerful forecasting ability of the change tendency of subtropical high and significant guiding means for the medium range forecasting of the significant weather process and the rain area. The T106 products at the lead time 96 h are believable. The probabilities of the T106 product drop sharply when the lead time beyond 120 h and this is an important aspect of that should be improved the model.