新疆玛纳斯河流域地下水预测研究

根据新疆玛纳斯河流域地下水年径流量的时间序列， 建立了用于描述和分析具有趋势和周期变化特性的地下径流量时间序列的组合模型应用模型对石河子地区地下水年径流量进行了预报， 为该地区水资源合理配置和优化调度提供科学依据 

Study of Groundwater Prediction on Manasi River Basin of Xinjiang

Temperature and precipitation inside the glacierized area are the major factors controlling groundwater formation in a glaciation valley The application of mechanism forecast model encounters difficulty for data shortage This paper is on the basis of the yearly runoff time series of the groundwater on Manasi River basin, and a combination model of yearly runoff time series for grondwater is established It is formed from tendency item, period item and the random series The model has a self adaptation function The model parameters can be rectified by increasing information and feedback This model is applied in the groundwater yearly runoff forecast in the Manasi River basin Forecast efficiency is satisfied