非对称信息扩散理论模型及其小样本灾害事件影响评估

针对地震灾害（特别是强震事件）评估中观测样本少,信息获取难的问题以及常规信息扩散模型难以有效刻画样本数据非对称结构的不足,提出一种＂椭圆式＂非对称的信息扩散评估模型。该方法可从有限数据样本结构中客观拟合出数据信息的扩散函数,进而实现对有限数据样本信息的合理拓展。实验结果表明,该非对称信息扩散技术可对不完备数据样本进行合理逼近和有效信息扩展,评估模型计算结果与客观实际情况相符。

Uneven Information Diffusion Model and Its Application in Inadequate Samples Disaster Events Evaluation

Aiming at the difficult problems of sparse observational sample data and inadequate collection of information in the process of risk analysis and disaster evaluation on earthquake, event (especially on the devastating earthquake disaster), as well as aiming at the shortcoming of current common information diffusion model which is difficult to describe the uneven structure of actual observational sample data, an uneven information diffusion idea was introduced, the corresponding theory deduce and algorithm improvement was made and an improved “ellipse style” information diffusion assessment technique model was established in this paper. It can efficiently and reasonably diffuse the information of sparse observational data and uncompleted sample into a full fuzzy set. As a simulation application case, this technique was used to evaluate the epicenter intensity and destroy area with the collected earthquake data in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 1988 to 2001. By comparing the evaluation results with that of normal information diffusion method, it indicated that the uneven information diffusion method and corresponding “ellipse style” evaluation model can truly model the process of information diffusion and its evaluation result was close to the actual cases.