海平面上升的灾害效应研究--以江苏沿海低地为例

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,其灾害效应直接影响沿海地区社会经济的持续发展。文章运用地面沉降与绝对海面变化叠加法和潮位记录法,预测未来30年,50年和100年江苏沿海海平面将分别上升0.30 m,0.53 m和1.37 m。在此基础上,对不同海平面上升量引起的风暴潮灾害、海岸侵蚀、潮滩盐沼损失、涵闸破坏、洪涝灾害加剧和海堤工程受损等方面的灾害效应进行了定量分析,并对江苏沿海低地进行分区灾害预警,认为海平面上升后的灾害效应在江苏中部海积平原表现得最为严重,废黄河三角洲平原和长江三角洲平原中等,而海州湾海积平原最轻。

Disaster Effects of Sea Level Rise--A Case of Jiangsu Coastal Lowland

With the global warming and increasing anthropic impacts on coastal zone,sea level rise seems inevitable.As a result,sustainable development of society and economy of coastland will be directly influenced by the disaster effects of sea level rise.In the past century,global sea level rise rate has been marked as 1 to 2mm per year in average.More and more attentions begin to be paid to global sea level rise and effects to coastal regions.Disaster effects of sea level rise are series of events(such as storm tide,coastal erosion,salt marsh lose,ruin of coastal protection engineering and so on) that could cause disasters to coastal regions.Jiangsu coast is known as its long coastline,wide coastal plain and inter-tidal mudflat.A deep and loose sediment layer deposited recently along the coast make the land subsidence be obvious.Added up with the Eustatic Sea Level Rise(ESLR),the relative sea level rise rate of the region is far higher than that of the globe in average.What's more,most of the coastal plain of Jiangsu is only slightly higher than the regional mean high water.Fced to remarkable relative sea level rise,the region will inevitably suffer from more serious disaster effects.Methods of regional land subsidence adding up with global sea level rise in average(Eustatic sea level) and tide data analysis are employed,relative sea level rise along Jiangsu coast in the coming 30,50 and 100 years are assessed in the paper.On the base of these,disaster of storm tide,erosion of coast,loss of coastal wetland,damnification of tide locks,boosting of flood disaster and ruin of coastal protection engineering along Jiangsu coast are quantificationally analyzed.And pre-warnings are made for different lowlands along Jiangsu coast,and concluded that the most severe victim is the coastal plain of mid-Jiangsu,followed by the abandoned Huanghe River Delta Plain and the Changjiang River Delta Plain,the Haizhouwan Coast in the north of Jiangsu Province will be slightly impacted correspondingly.Some countermeasures against these disaster effects are also analyzed in the paper.