Conditions leading to the onset of the Indian monsoon: A satellite perspective

Summary The summer monsoon onset-2004 over the Kerala Coast (Southern tip of the Indian Peninsula) was monitored in real-time using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)/TMI derived total precipitable water vapor, wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and QuikScat wind data. The 2004 onset was of a gradual type, with an early start (24 May), followed by slow growth to full strength (10 June). Hence, the unambiguous forecasting of such onsets becomes very difficult. The water vapor build up over the western Arabian Sea is one of the necessary conditions that gives us a lead time of two and half weeks for the onset of monsoon. The strength of the Hadley cell (monitored using NCEP meridional wind), which is associated with a large convective heat source is also used as a predictive parameter with a lead-time of two weeks. The other dynamical conditions considered are the early May propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) followed by a second MJO, which began in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and the kinetic energy over the South East Arabian Sea, with an early start around 24 May (50 m²/s²) and strengthening around 10 June (80 m²/s²). The setting of large-scale monsoon current using various satellite derived parameters and the distinct features for the year 2004 have been delineated.