Effect of variable‐density groundwater flow on nitrate flux to coastal waters

A two‐dimensional variable‐density groundwater flow and transport model was developed to provide a conceptual understanding of past and future conditions of nitrate (NO₃) transport and estimate groundwater nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico. Simulation results show that contaminant discharge to the coast decreases as the extent of saltwater intrusion increases. Other natural and/or artificial surface waters such as navigation channels may serve as major sinks for contaminant loading and act to alter expected transport pathways discharging contaminants to other areas. Concentrations of NO₃ in the saturated zone were estimated to range between 30 and 160 mg?L^?1 as NO₃. Relatively high hydraulic vertical gradients and mixing likely play a significant role in the transport processes, enhancing dilution and contaminant migration to depth. Residence times of NO₃ in the deeper aquifers vary from 100 (locally) to about 300 years through the investigated aquifer system. NO₃ mass fluxes from the shallow aquifers (0 to 5.7 × 10⁴ mg?m^?2?day^?1) were primarily directed towards the navigation channel, which intersects and captures a portion of the shallow groundwater flow/discharge. Direct NO₃ discharge to the sea (i.e. Gulf of Mexico) from the shallow aquifer was very low (0 to 9.0 × 10¹ mg · m^?2?day^?1) compared with discharge from the deeper aquifer system (0 to 8.2 × 10³ mg?m^?2?day^?1). Both model‐calibrated and radiocarbon tracer‐determined contaminant flux estimates reveal similar discharge trends, validating the use of the model for density‐dependent flow conditions. The modelling approach shows promise to evaluate contaminant and nutrient loading for similar coastal regions worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.