A seismic gap in the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan as inferred from the time-space distribution of past seismicity

Abstract Based on the spatial distribution of the focal areas from previous large earthquakes, a significant seismic gap was found off the coast of the Akita Prefecture at the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan. We forecast that the 75 km segment of plate boundary may be ruptured by a large thrust earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 in the near future. The time of occurrence is uncertain, but the recurrence interval of large earthquakes in this region suggests that it will be no later than the end of next century. The time sequence of large earthquakes in the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan shows a systematic shortening of the earthquake interval for the past 250 years. This feature is simulated successfully by a simple mechanical model that represents a plate boundary by segmented blocks, each of which is composed of a spring friction slider system. We further propose to revise the conventionally accepted plate boundary between the Eurasian and Okhotsk plates in the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan; the observed data of seismic activity and recent crustal deformation indicate that the southern part of the plate boundary traverses the land region from Niigata to Otari along the Shinanogawa seismic belt. The fault geometries of previous large earthquakes show that the mode of plate convergence in the eastern margin of the Sea of Japan is a collision type rather than a simple eastward subduction as was postulated in early studies.