四川及其三个分区的地震平静指标及其预测效能的研究--不同层次地震平静异常预测效能的研究之一

作为不同层次地震平静异常预测效能的研究之一,本文针对四川及其三个分区,利用过去积累的30多年地震资料,经过多种方案试算、评分检验,明确了平静指标和预测规则,找到了合适的研究平静预测的震级下限M0、预测震级M1、平静异常时间T1与预测时间T2等最佳参数组合,可以取T2等最佳参数组合,可以取得高于置信水平为97.5%的区别随机瞎报的阈值R0的R评分值。

Researching on the seisnic qiet index and prediction efficient in Sichuan and its three regions:Predicting researching of the seismic quiet precrsor with the different seismic magnitudes(Part 1)

As one of the researching topics on the predicting efficient of the seismic quiet precursor with different seismic magnitudes,the quiet indexes and the predicting rules for Sichuan and other three regions are presented in this paper.There indexes and rules are summarized from the seismic data for 30 years and are calculated and tested with the different schenes.Based on these results mentioned above,the suitable low magnitude M_o of the quiet predicting,the predivtive seismic magnitued M,the quiet interval of prdcursor T_1 and the predictive earthqake occurring time are found.Our R-values are higher than the threshold value R_0-value with the 97.5% confidence,which different from the random prediction values of 1-R-values.