IDENTIFICATION OF THE SOLAR SOURCE FOR THE 18 OCTOBER 1995 MAGNETIC CLOUD

It is necessary to identify signatures of solar sources in order to improve predictions of solar-caused geomagnetic activity. This is not a straightforward task as the relationship is not well understood. We apply an algorithm, derived from numerical simulations to identify the solar source of an interplanetary event that was observed by the WIND spacecraft on October 18, 1995 and was followed by a geomagnetic storm. No specific geomagnetic activity had been predicted at Space Weather Operations (SWO) in Boulder, CO, on the basis of earlier solar observations. The algorithm is used to estimate the time and location of the expected solar source of this interplanetary event. A review of solar observations prior to the WIND observations showed that solar activity precursors could be identified. A long-duration-event was seen by GOES in soft X-rays at the same time as a type IV burst was observed in metric radio wavelengths, and a rearrangement of fields was observed by the soft X-ray telescope on the Yohkoh satellite. This suggests that the algorithm is useful for post facto identification of solar sources, and that such combinations of solar activity should be further investigated for use in geomagnetic forecasting.