城市化与生态环境耦合模式及判别

基于耗散结构理论,演绎出了城市化与生态环境耦合发展的五种模式。在此基础上,通过类型组合和平面几何分析建立了辩识城市化与生态环境耦合发展的判据体系,作为定量评价城市化与生态环境建设协调的依据。最后,以徐州市为研究对象,利用主成分加权合成方法分析了它的城市化与生态环境交互耦合的情况,其结果发现近10年间徐州市不仅城市化与生态环境各自的发展轨迹明显不同,而且二者耦合类型多样,并且以协调和基本协调为主。实例研究证实,该评价方法和判据体系对区域城市化与生态环境耦合模式的判别简单可行、便于应用,对于评价与协调城市化发展与生态环境保护的关系等具有一定的借鉴意义。

Model and Criterion of Urbanization and Ecological Environment Coupling

Based on Dissipation Structure Theory and the rule of urbanization and ecological environment interaction, the five coupling models which are coordination, basic coordination, threshold, conflict and degradation types have been deduced. According to the models and its evolvement orders, the development paths and trends of the coupling system can been analyzed and forecasted. The threshold is so subtle that we must pay more attention to, or else, the shift from basic coordination to conflict type is dangerous, and the degradation type is so hazardous that we must control and obviate. Through associated analysis and geometrical process, the judgment system to distinguish coordination development has been also put forward on the basis of the coupling models, which is a criterion of evaluating urbanization and eco-environment coordination. If the urbanization comprehensive index and eco-environment comprehensive index are respectively defined as X(t) and Y(t), and differences and the rate of variation defined as ΔX(t), ΔY(t) and ε, the coupling model can be explained on the on a plane. The classifications can be summed up as follows: (1) if ΔX(t)>0, ΔY(t)>0, the coupling system is coordinative; (2) if ΔX(t)=0, ΔY(t)=0 or ΔX(t)>0,ΔY(t)<0, |ΔY(t)/ Y(t-Δt)| =ε, or ΔX(t)<0,ΔY(t)>0, |ΔX(t)/X(t-Δt)| =ε, the coupling system is situated a critical point or a shift threshold; (3) if ΔX(t)>0, ΔY(t)<0, |ΔY(t)/ Y(t-Δt)|<0 or ΔX(t)<0, ΔY(t)>0, |ΔX(t)/X(t-Δt)|<ε, the coupling system is basically coordinative; (4) if ΔX(t)>0, ΔY(t)<0, |ΔY(t)/ Y(t-Δt)| >0 or ΔX(t)<0, ΔY(t)>0, |ΔX(t)/X(t-Δt)| >0,the coupling system is conflictive; (5) if ΔX(t)<0, ΔY(t)<0, the coupling system is degraded. At last as a case, in terms of the models and judgment criterions, Xuzhou city evolved paths and coupling models have been researched by weighted PCA (Principle Component Analysis) from 1992-2002 in order to develop some suggestion. The studies we have performed show that: there are significantly different development paths of urbanization and eco-environment. In Xuzhou, urbanization comprehensive level has continually been advanced but the eco-environment comprehensive quality curve can be regarded as an inverse "U" figure. At the sametime there are four coupling types involved in Xuzhou City, and the coordination & basic coordination types are main ones. With the case studies, it proved the evaluation method and the judgment system which was simple and effective to appraise and coordinated regional urbanization development with eco-environment protection.