| 应用模式输出统计作海雾出现判别预报 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡基福,郭可彩,鄢利农.应用模式输出统计作海雾出现判别预报[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),1996(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡基福 郭可彩 鄢利农 |
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| 作者单位： | 青岛海洋大学海洋气象系，青岛海洋预报中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 应用模式输出统计的逐步判别方法，对山东南部沿海４～７月海雾出现作２４ｈ的判别预报。候选预报因子包括：日本数值预报传真图、近岸台站的观测、经验设计因子及其一些组合因子。对１９９３年４～７月独立资料，进行试报检验，结果表明，预报准确率达７７％
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| 关 键 词： | 海雾预报 山东南部沿海 模式输出统计 逐步判别分析 |
DISCRIMINATE PREDICTION OF MARINE FOG OCCURRENCE USING A MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SCHEME |
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| Hu Jifu,Guo Decai,Yan Linong.DISCRIMINATE PREDICTION OF MARINE FOG OCCURRENCE USING A MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS SCHEME[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,1996(4). |
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| Authors: | Hu Jifu Guo Decai Yan Linong |
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| Institution: | Hu Jifu 1 Guo Decai 2 Yan Linong 1 |
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| Abstract: | A model output statistics(MOS) scheme, using a stepwise selection discriminant analysis approach, is used to estimate marine fog occurrence in 24h for the south coastal region of Shangdong during April to July. Available predictors include Japan numerical forecast fasimite maps, the observations of coastal stations, empirical design factors and some combining factors. The varifications of marine fog estimates for April to July 1993 (independent data) give a correct percentage of 77%. |
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| Keywords: | marine fog forecast south coastal region of Shangdong model output statistics stepwise discriminant analysis |
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